Quantifying spatial and vertical variations in soil C:N relationships in permafrost-affected landscapes

Permafrost regions are experiencing rapid changes that affect carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles, with implications for vegetation dynamics and gas exchanges with the atmosphere. Soil C:N ratio is a key indicator of organic matter quality, yet spatial estimates of N stocks and C:N ratios lag behind those for C. We used quantile regression forests to compare direct and indirect digital soil mapping approaches for predicting soil C:N ratios at 0–30, 30–60, and 60–100 cm depths across a latitudinal transect in Alaska. The indirect approach – deriving C:N from separately predicted C and N stocks – outperformed direct mapping for the surface layer (0–30 cm), while direct mapping was marginally better at greater depths. However, prediction accuracy decreased with depth for both methods. Temperature and topography were the most important predictors. Both approaches overestimated low and underestimated high C:N ratios, with direct mapping showing greater bias. Our results underscore the challenges of modeling C:N ratios in heterogeneous, data-sparse permafrost soils, but also suggest that indirect mapping holds promise if supported by more extensive datasets.. Authors: Minai, Joshua O. [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)] (ORCID:0000000320776298); Jastrow, Julie D. [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)] (ORCID:0000000170694560); Matamala, Roser [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)] (ORCID:0000000155529807); Ping, Chien-Lu [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, Palmer, AK (United States)]; Michaelson, Gary J. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, Palmer, AK (United States)]. DOE Contract: AC02-06CH11357. Subjects: C:N ratio; Digital Soil Mapping; Permafrost Soils; Quantile Regression Forests