Trends and Effects of Changes in Business Cases for Petroleum Refineries

This study investigates trends and effects in business cases for petroleum refineries with a focus on effects for the state of Oregon for finished gasoline. Recently, the Oregon Department of Energy released the 2024 Oregon Energy Security Plan (ESP) which highlighted the reliance on out of state gasoline imports primarily from refineries located in the state of Washington. This study compiled a list of recent refinery closures in the United States and analyzed the drivers and impacts each refinery closure had to its respective region. The study dives into exploring three refinery closure business cases and past events that impacted gasoline prices in Oregon. Lastly, the paper outlines a potential framework of indicators to analyze the risk of future refinery closures based on the findings. This study hopes to inform stakeholders about the vulnerabilities in Oregon’s fuel supply chain and provide information that can guide strategic planning for future energy security.. Authors: Hamilton, Vanessa A. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)]; Mitra, Bhaskar [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)] (ORCID:0000000155841390); He, Li [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)] (ORCID:0000000327619404). DOE Contract: AC05-76RL01830. Subjects: 02 PETROLEUM; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY