Assessing Climate Change-Induced Variability in Generation Potential and Droughts of Renewable Energy Systems in India

Solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy systems are crucial for decarbonizing the electricity sector and achieving climate goals. However, these systems are weather-dependent, and ignoring the potential changes in their generation levels due to climate change could compromise achieving climate targets and meeting future electricity demand. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on the generation potential of wind and solar PV systems in India for three future periods, 2030 (2021-2040), 2050 (2041-2060), and 2070 (2061-2080) compared to the baseline year 2000 (1991-2010), under three emission scenarios: SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. Solar PV generation levels consistently decline (up to 10 %) across all regions and scenarios. Wind energy shows more pronounced variability (-20 % to 30 %). The South and Southeastern regions of India show improvements in wind potential across all scenarios and time periods. This study also investigated the projected changes in the generation droughts of both energy systems. For solar PV, drought days increase across most regions (exceeding 500 days under SSP370 across the 20-year period). In contrast, wind energy sees a reduction in drought days, especially in parts of South and Southeast India (declines exceeding 50 days across different scenarios). For both energy systems, the patterns of generation drought and generation potential are similar, and indicate that Western and Northern India may be less favorable for the future expansion of solar PV and wind energy, respectively. These results highlight the need to account for the potential impacts in future capacity planning.. Authors: Babu, Aravinda De Chinnu Arul [Indian Institute of Technology Bombay]; Ramadesigan, Venkatasailanathan [Indian Institute of Technology Bombay]; Banerjee, Rangan [Indian Institute of Technology Bombay; Indian Institute of Technology Delhi]; Singh, Anoop [Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur]; Sengupta, Manajit [National Laboratory of the Rockies, Golden, CO (United States)] (ORCID:0000000156224503). DOE Contract: AC36-08GO28308. Subjects: 14 SOLAR ENERGY; 17 WIND ENERGY; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; capacity utilization factor; climate change; CMIP6 climate models; generation droughts; solar PV; wind energy